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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+259/-427).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -423 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -427.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Christian McCaffrey has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.7% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among running backs.

Christian McCaffrey's 33.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for RBs.

The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Christian McCaffrey ranks in the 90th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.25 per game.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in football (92.4%) to running backs this year (92.4%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.

Christian McCaffrey has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (-1.0 per game) than he did last season (11.0 per game).

Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.9% to 82.4%.

More Christian McCaffrey Player Props

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