Christian McCaffrey Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+102/-136).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to run on 45.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The projections expect Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 17.2 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs.
In regards to run-blocking (and the impact it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the 49ers profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Jacksonville's group of LBs has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 8th-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).
Christian McCaffrey's 82.0% snap rate this year indicates a meaningful growth in his offensive usage over last year's 71.5% mark.

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