Christian McCaffrey Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Carries

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 2:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense as the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.28 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 16.9 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has been a more important option in his offense's running game this year (74.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (62.9%).
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback P.J. Walker in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.