Christian McCaffrey Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Carries

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 8th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 44.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to earn 16.2 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has garnered 71.4% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.