Christian McCaffrey Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 19

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to garner 17.1 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

Christian McCaffrey has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this season, staying on the field for 71.5% of snaps compared to just 60.0% last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.