Christian McCaffrey Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -101 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to earn 20.0 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has earned 58.0% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.