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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +123 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.1% pass rate.

Christian Kirk has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 20.3% this year, which ranks in the 75th percentile when it comes to WRs.

The Jacksonville offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.9%) to wide receivers this year (68.9%).

The Patriots linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 6.5 points.

The predictive model expects the Jaguars to run the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Jaguars have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.

Christian Kirk's 62.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 70.9% rate.

More Christian Kirk Player Props

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