Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 5, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a monstrous 60.3 per game on average).
The model projects Christian Kirk to earn 6.7 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
Christian Kirk has been a key part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 22.3% this year, which ranks in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
Christian Kirk ranks as one of the best WRs in the league this year, averaging an excellent 5.0 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in football.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a massive 10.5-point favorite in this game.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This year, the formidable Bengals defense has conceded a puny 62.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 8th-best rate in football.

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