Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.0% pass rate.
The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
In this game, Christian Kirk is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 86th percentile among WRs with 8.0 targets.

Favors Under

As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Houston's group of CBs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

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