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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-134/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

Christian Kirk has been less involved as a potential target this season (95.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.8%).

THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.9% to 63.1%.

The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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