Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 2:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (95.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to earn 7.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
Christian Kirk's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 60.9%.
The New York Giants pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (60.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (60.6%).

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