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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-190/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Christian Kirk has run fewer routes this season (94.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.8%).

THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to accumulate 8.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among WRs.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.9% to 58.7%.

The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) versus wideouts this year (62.9%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

More Christian Kirk Player Props

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