Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+138/-174).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -158 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -174.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to notch 8.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 59.9 plays per game.
Christian Kirk's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.9% to 60.4%.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (61.2%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (61.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.