Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.0 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -147 before it was bet up to 5.0 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential target this year (94.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (81.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to garner 7.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.6% to 68.0%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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