Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Christian Kirk has gone out for fewer passes this year (94.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (81.9%).

Favors Under

Christian Kirk's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.6% to 67.1%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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