Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.0 (+102/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.0 @ -125 before it was bet down to 5.0 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential target this year (94.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (81.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 7.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Christian Kirk's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.9% to 68.9%.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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