Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.1% pass rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to earn 7.3 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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