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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on throwing than their usual game plan.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 62.1% of their downs: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 10th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.2 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The projections expect Christian Kirk to total 7.7 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 86th percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jaguars are predicted by the model to call just 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.

Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 70.9% to 58.3%.

Christian Kirk's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling just 6.87 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.41 rate last year.

Christian Kirk's 2.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a material reduction in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 4.3% figure.

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