Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 19, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 52.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a massive 62.3 per game on average).
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
In this week's game, Christian Kirk is anticipated by the projection model to land in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers with 8.7 targets.

Favors Under

Christian Kirk's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, totaling a measly 8.40 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.53 mark last season.
The Saints pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (57.2%) vs. WRs this year (57.2%).
The Saints pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against wide receivers this year, allowing 7.05 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
The Saints linebackers grade out as the 8th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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