Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 62.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 61.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 136.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a staggering 64.2 per game on average).
In this game, Christian Kirk is expected by the projections to rank in the 87th percentile among wide receivers with 8.2 targets.
With a high 23.3% Target% (85th percentile) this year, Christian Kirk stands as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.
Christian Kirk has been among the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an excellent 67.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The leading projections forecast the Jaguars as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
After totaling 67.0 air yards per game last year, Christian Kirk has regressed heavily this year, now sitting at 62.0 per game.
The the Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

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