Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.60 seconds per play.
The predictive model expects Christian Kirk to accumulate 7.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
Christian Kirk has put up a monstrous 66.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The Jaguars O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Christian Kirk has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 67.0 yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Christian Kirk's 45.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 52.8.
Christian Kirk's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, compiling just 7.30 yards-per-target vs a 9.53 figure last year.
As it relates to safeties rushing the passer, Atlanta's group of safeties has been excellent since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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