Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (+113/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 57.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential target this season (94.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to accrue 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Christian Kirk has totaled far fewer air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 60.5%.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.46 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.