Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 64.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has run fewer routes this season (94.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to accumulate 8.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
Christian Kirk has totaled a colossal 75.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.9% to 58.7%.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 133.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) versus wideouts this year (62.9%).
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus WRs this year, yielding 7.76 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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