Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 21, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 66.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Christian Kirk has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (94.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (81.9%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.8%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.