Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 58.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential target this season (94.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 7.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Christian Kirk has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.8%.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 122.0) to wide receivers this year.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. wideouts this year, conceding 7.63 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in football.

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