Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (94.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.9%).

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Christian Kirk has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (68.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.6% to 68.2%.
The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 132.0) vs. wide receivers this year.

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