Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (+110/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 48.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (94.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to earn 7.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Christian Kirk has put up a monstrous 72.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among wideouts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.6% to 68.4%.
The New York Jets defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in football (just 122.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.8%).

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