Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential target this year (94.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (81.9%).

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Christian Kirk has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.6% to 68.8%.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 140.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

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