Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Christian Kirk has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (93.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to notch 7.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has notched quite a few less air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.6%.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in football.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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