Christian Kirk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+166/-236).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +194 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 25.8% this year, which puts him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
Christian Kirk has totaled a colossal 75.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among wide receivers.
Christian Kirk's 50.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 83rd percentile for wideouts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.9% to 58.7%.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) versus wideouts this year (62.9%).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 8th-least TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.60 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.