Christian Kirk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+199/-297).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -258 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -297.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
Christian Kirk has compiled a monstrous 73.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among WRs.
Christian Kirk's 55.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 47.3.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to be a less important option in his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (23.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.4% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (56.9%) versus wide receivers this year (56.9%).
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed the 3rd-least passing TDs in football to wide receivers: 0.70 per game since the start of last season.

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