Christian Kirk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+172/-246).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -221 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -246.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (22.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.0% in games he has played).
Christian Kirk has accumulated a colossal 73.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among WRs.
Christian Kirk's 48.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 79th percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in football to wideouts: 0.68 per game since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.