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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 2

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-250).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (21.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (13.4% in games he has played).

Christian Kirk has posted a whopping 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among wideouts.

Christian Kirk's 48.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 78th percentile for wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 59.9 plays per game.

Christian Kirk's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.9% to 60.4%.

The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (61.2%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (61.2%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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