My Account Log Out

reorder

Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+189/-278).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -265 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -278.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.

Christian Kirk has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 28.1% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among WRs.

Christian Kirk's 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 84th percentile for wideouts.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Christian Kirk has notched quite a few less air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).

Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.6%.

The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

More Christian Kirk Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™