Christian Kirk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+189/-278).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -265 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -278.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Christian Kirk has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 28.1% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among WRs.
Christian Kirk's 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 84th percentile for wideouts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has notched quite a few less air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.6%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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