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Christian Kirk
NFL · Player Props
Christian Kirk
WR · Jacksonville Jaguars
Receiving TD
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022 Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC
NFL Props Christian Kirk Receiving TD

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-226).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -207 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -226.

Favors Over
  • The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
  • Christian Kirk has put up a whopping 71.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among wideouts.
  • Christian Kirk's 55.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 47.3.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (26.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (31.8% in games he has played).
  • Christian Kirk's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.9% to 68.9%.
  • The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
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