Christian Kirk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-226).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -207 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -226.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Christian Kirk has put up a whopping 71.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Christian Kirk's 55.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 47.3.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (26.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (31.8% in games he has played).
Christian Kirk's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.9% to 68.9%.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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