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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+158/-221).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +166 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +158.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

Christian Kirk's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 83rd percentile for WRs.

The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to be a less important option in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (24.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (29.7% in games he has played).

Christian Kirk has compiled far fewer air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (72.0 per game).

Christian Kirk's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.9% to 64.8%.

The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 10th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.

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