Christian Kirk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+207/-314).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +212 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +207.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (18.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.5% in games he has played).
Christian Kirk has posted a whopping 72.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among wide receivers.
Christian Kirk's 47.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 76th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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