Chris Rodriguez Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 61.0% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.3 total plays called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
The Giants pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus running backs this year, yielding 6.79 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a huge 7.5-point favorite this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the New York Giants, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.7 per game) this year.
With a feeble 0.0% Target% (1st percentile) this year, Chris Rodriguez stands among the pass-catching RBs with the smallest workloads in football.
This year, the formidable Giants defense has conceded a paltry 21.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 3rd-fewest in football.
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's group of LBs has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 9th-best in the NFL.