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Chris Olave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-175/+135).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -156 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -175.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Saints are a giant 8-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in football.In this week's contest, Chris Olave is expected by the model to finish in the 91st percentile among wideouts with 8.3 targets.Chris Olave places in the 94th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a massive 67.0 mark since the start of last season.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.When it comes to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.8%) to WRs since the start of last season (61.8%).When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Kansas City's CB corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.
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