Chris Olave Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Chris Olave

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 9:41 PM EST

Analysis

Chris Olave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this game, Chris Olave is predicted by the model to secure a spot in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.7 targets.
Chris Olave ranks in the 94th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) with a remarkable 67.0 mark since the start of last season.
With an excellent 5.1 adjusted catches per game (89th percentile) since the start of last season, Chris Olave has been among the top wide receivers in the league in the league.

Favors Under

Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in football (56.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Saints.
The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.28 seconds per play.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the tough Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a measly 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 9th-best rate in the NFL.
The Falcons safeties project as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.