Chris Olave Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Chris Olave

NFL · Player Props

Chris Olave

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Olave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 65.5 per game on average).
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
In this contest, Chris Olave is forecasted by the projections to land in the 88th percentile among wide receivers with 8.5 targets.
Chris Olave's 67.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 93rd percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Saints are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Saints profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.
Chris Olave's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 60.1% to 55.6%.

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