Chris Olave Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Chris Olave

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Olave Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+199/-296).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +211 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +199.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Chris Olave has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.6% this year, which puts him in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
Chris Olave has notched a colossal 139.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Chris Olave's 68.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 94th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Chris Olave has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 59.8% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 18th percentile among WRs
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.