Chris Olave Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Chris Olave

NFL · Player Props

Chris Olave

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Olave Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+187/-273).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +233 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +187.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Chris Olave has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 22.2% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
Chris Olave has accrued a whopping 169.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among wideouts.
Chris Olave's 69.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 94th percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in football.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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