Chris Olave Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Chris Olave

NFL · Player Props

Chris Olave

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Olave Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-330).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Chris Olave has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 24.4% this year, which ranks in the 88th percentile among WRs.
Chris Olave has totaled a whopping 124.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Chris Olave's 67.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 92nd percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
Chris Olave has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 61.8% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile among wideouts
The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 10th-least TDs through the air in the league to WRs: 0.70 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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