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Chris Olave Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+219/-337).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -326 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -337.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.Chris Olave has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.7% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.Chris Olave has put up a whopping 126.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among WRs.Chris Olave's 67.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for wideouts.The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Completion% in football (69.5%) vs. wideouts this year (69.5%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Chris Olave has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in a mere 60.5% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 19th percentile among wide receiversThe Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-best group of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
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