Chris Olave Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Chris Olave

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Olave Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+195/-290).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +216 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +195.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Chris Olave has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.5% this year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
Chris Olave has put up a colossal 133.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among wideouts.
Chris Olave's 69.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 94th percentile for WRs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the most passing touchdowns in football to WRs: 1.62 per game this year.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Chris Olave has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, catching a measly 60.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 20th percentile among wide receivers
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (63.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.6%).
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.