Chris Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Chris Moore

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-151/+113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Chris Moore has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, completing a terrific 93.6% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 96th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.