Chris Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Chris Moore

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+126/-174).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -151 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -174.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Moore to be much more involved in his team's passing attack this week (13.2% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.1% in games he has played).
Chris Moore has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, hauling in a terrific 92.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the 6th-worst group of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 59.7 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.