Chris Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Chris Moore

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Chris Moore has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, completing a terrific 93.6% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 96th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
Chris Moore has posted a mere 11.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 16th percentile among wide receivers.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 137.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.47 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.