Chris Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Chris Moore

NFL · Player Props

Chris Moore

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Moore to notch 6.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Chris Moore's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this year, compiling a measly 5.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.86 rate last year.

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